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2018 Election Prediction (1) Nullification

October 30, 2018

If the Republicans lose control of both the House and the Senate (and maybe even if they lose only the House), Herr Trompf will move to nullify the election.  He is setting us up for it, with escalation of his Black Plague Rat Invasion (my term for what he is coming close to claiming) Caravan scam [*], his anti-Semitism, his racism and xenophobia, his “fake news” published by the “enemies of the people.”  Or at least he is setting himself up for it.  He will want very much to do it.   It’s who he is, to the core.  Will he be able to resist such an impulse, and not throw a national(ist) tantrum?

To Trompf’s childish mind, now that he is fully in the game, democracy simply does not make sense as the board and set of rules for that game; and it can not be a good thing, if it leads to his rejection by the electorate, threatening his ability to use the presidency as a means of acquiring wealth.  What’s the point?  He has a better idea.

He will have R supporters of such a thing.  Will other Rs be able to stop him?

Will anybody be able to stop him?

Yes, I think so, but at what cost?

I swear I’ve never seen anything like this, and I’ve been aware of elections since 1952, participating since ‘60.  A week before election day, with early voting going on, the issue on which we are voting is being clarified by T and his allies, each day, as whether we want America to continue to be a liberal democracy.

They are making their move.  They have been building momentum among themselves; but it is a wild momentum that they cannot wholly control and that now sweeps them along.  They are running as a pack.  The scent of blood is in the air.

Their momentum has been broken somewhat by Revulsion (beyond Resistance) on the part of the majority of citizens, I think.  Although Dems have been campaigning successfully with a positive message, centered on the provision of health care, I think it is this wave of revulsion that might actually move a wave of voters to elect Ds.

Herr Trompf and many R owners (oligarchic corporatists), R operatives, and R voters want America to be a minority-ruled, white nationalist, fascist state.  If they win, or can nullify, enough contests to maintain their control of the federal government, they will put in place the apparatus of such a state, including, yes, concentration camps along our southern border (it’s not unimaginable:  we established such barb-wired camps of  “Plains Indians” and Japanese-Americans).

So that’s my prediction today, 10/30.  I am not surprised that the plot line has come to this.  I am, of course, saddened.  I would prefer a happier narration.  Perhaps that is yet to come.  I’ll use this page for daily updates, and we’ll see.  On 11/5 I’ll add page (2), for my prediction of the final results.

[*]  Influential conservative and former R advisor, Steve Schmidt, last night referred to the caravan con as T’s “Reichstag fire” (see Fake News MSNBC video on this page ).

Update Halloween

So T is doubling down on making the national vote about himself and his fear-filled vision of America (i.e. himself, the scariest of all).  For examples (no political “down side”?  we’ll see).

As of this evening, it looks to me as though that ploy will work in homogenously white racist communities.  A majority of white men will vote T, because they have been raised to run in packs and to bond themselves to the alpha dog.  Those men will be joined by a minority of white women, who have been raised to believe that their pack is God’s beloved, and its alpha dog organization is Alpha Dog’s way.  In other words, the Trompf Republican pack is the Republican base.  That racist, us-against-them aspect of their humanity will trump every positive aspect.  I doubt there are enough of them to maintain the R majority in the House.

So I’m glad to see T double down, so long as Dems are campaigning in support of positive aspects of our humanity, such as inclusive community and good health care for everyone, because I don’t want to wait until Nov 2020 for a national rejection of Republican Trompfism.

Update 11-1  It seems T had a plan for controlling the Fake News, during the last two weeks of the campaign, that would turn the election in favor of his Rs.  He would make the election a national referendum on his leadership; and he would bend the power of the presidency into a mightier version of what he thinks gave him his victory in 2016, when he “won a vast majority of 63 million votes,” as recently asserted by his press secretary (and lost by almost 3 million, as asserted by reality).

A couple months ago he remarked, seemingly off-the-cuff, that there was going to be a Red voter Wave that would swamp (my word, I’ve forgotten his) the Ds.  I thought he was just spouting off.  But now I think he had a plan.

With rally after rally in the closing days of the election, he would use racism and fear-mongering, attached to a caravan of 4000 desperate people, many of them women and children fleeing conditions in Honduras, to convince his foolish supporters that their nation (they being the “real Americans”) is under mortal threat by a vicious mob that was organized by the Democrats and financed by The Jew, George Soros.  Then he would ride to the border with the army to put up a “human wall” (his words) against the dark barbarian hordes, since the Ds would not give him his concrete and steal wall. His MAGA Hats would pour into the streets to vote for his heroic leadership.

It looked (to him) as though it would work.  As he said, a couple days ago, the Rs were building momentum (at least in his mind); but then there was this unexpected “bomb stuff” (the truly remarkable, as will gradually sink into the national historical consciousness) attempted assassinations of two former presidents, a former vice president, a former secretary of state, the satanic George Soros XXX, and other T critics and opponents, that slowed the R roll.  Immediately after that, came the unexpected shooting in the back of two black shoppers, when the gunman was unable to enter a black church to kill a larger number of people.  And before that news could register, the unexpected (but as many have pointed out, “inevitable”) mass murder of Jews, in Pittsburgh.  All three of these domestic terrorists were white male MAGAs.

Now the momentum has reversed.  The Rs are in electoral trouble.  They are losing, and so of course they go as low as can be reached.

This morning, at the beginning of the last week of campaigning, the Rs released one of the dirtiest ads in recent history, rivaling in filth the infamous GHW Bush Willie Horton ad.  This one ends with the new T slogan, “Make America Safe Again” (which should be, “Making America Puke Again”)

But I’m thinking he tried to control life so tightly that it got out of hand.  It sort of squirted out, violently.  It seems to be getting farther out of hand each day.

Now there’s word that T might be falling apart.

Update 11-2  Among people who are well-informed, think carefully, and speak and write honestly, a consensus has formed, that Herr Trompf has made himself (and his local R representatives) the central issue of this election, because of the degradation and destruction that he has caused, is causing with his campaign tactics, and will cause if he is not put in a political straight-jacket.

Early this morning he tweeted to US soldiers that stones thrown by civilians (not that there have been any, but hey) should be considered to be rifles, and soldiers should shoot back (even in the middle of Fifth Ave, I suppose).  During the day a lot of people pointed out that shooting unarmed civilians is not only inhumane, but if that isn’t enough of a deterrent, it is also illegal.  Even for military personnel.  For instance, American soldiers do not shoot civilians throwing stones in Afghanistan or Iraq.

T and his Rs are now relying on a message of violence to excite and incite their voters to vote. The vote is a weapon, and voting is an act of violence.  The message is: You R voters, the real Americans, are under attack; we R politicians will protect you if you keep us in office; otherwise you are lost.

I don’t see evidence of Rs running on any other “issue.”

My impression, however, is that the increasingly outlandish ways by which the Rs are delivering their message, and the murderous violence that it has inspired, is motivating many voters to get out and vote D, to protect the nation from R violence.

Certainly the turnout for early voting is remarkably high, for both Rs and Ds.  But the I vote also is running high, and we don’t know how it is dividing.

Update 11-3  (1) T has succeeded in making immigration (bigotry) the second most important issue, nationally, behind health care.  But that doesn’t mean that a majority of voters are for, or against, immigration.  The facts and value of imm are muddied and debatable.  T’s actions about imm are highly controversial, often because they are blatantly inhumane.  Emphasis on this issue will motivate Ds, Rs, and Is.  At the same time, issues that Rs were counting on, e.g. abortion and tax cuts, are being crowded out; and R opposition to Obamacare is hurting them.

(2)  The Beto v. Cruz campaign probably is my favorite single campaign of this election, because Beto is so much the opposite of Trompf that really this contest is Beto v. Trump.

(3)  T is making sure that every contest in the nation is part of the large competition between radically different imaginations of America.

(4) The national momentum appears to have swung left.

Update 11-4  Finding their honesty at last, Herr Trompf and his Rs have decided to go for it:  they are blatantly molding this election into a referendum on who they really are and what they really want:  white male (but not Jews) supremacy that enables oligarchy and maintains its power by any dishonest means necessary.  For instance, investigation into that Horton-esque ad shows that the criminal was let into the country and then out of custody by Republicans, including Sheriff Arpaio, whom T has pardoned.  But that ad is only the flag ship of a national battle group of ads featuring the threat of crime.

Looks like more younger voters are showing up, though.  And more Hispanic voters.  Bodes well for Ds.

11-5  But hey, CNN, NBC, FB, and Fox are now refusing to run that fukkking racist Trompf ad!

[Predictions page (2).]

 

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