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Democracy, Rebellion, Re-Alignment (1)

October 31, 2016

This plot line will soon reach a turning point, like the End of Book I; so I can’t help but think ahead to what might happen in Book II. The characters will be the same, at least for a while. Here’s a scenario that I think is plausible.

Big Picture: we’re in a poisonously, hatefully polarized moment like the 1850s, but this one won’t come to armed revolt (except for maybe the crazies). The question is whether the United States will continue to be a unified national democracy, with a dominant central government. (The answer is yes, in case you don’t have much time for reading).

The current situation is unstable, and political individuals and parties will try to use it to further their interests and visions; but it will resolve itself into national stability, not later than 2024 (in part because persons now 10 years old will be voting—while a bunch of sexist old white grumps won’t be, and in part because of the critical necessity of turning everyone’s attention to dealing with global warming).

I can imagine this ongoing plot:

1) Democracy is decision-making and governance by the majority of voters. We have extended enfranchisement to every adult citizen (although not yet narrators of any age), but the result has been a steady process of diminishing the opportunity for control of the nation by the minority group that originally constituted its voters (white male property owners).

Now the population is comprised of an increasing diversity of self-identifying groups, each one a minority within the whole, with the result that those historical owners, now led by megawealthy white males who idealize ownership of everything and everybody, find it very difficult to marshal sufficient voter support to keep themselves in control. Some of them have the desire and resources to organize minority rule—or at least try to.

Meanwhile, the nation’s one demographic majority group, a group that infiltrates many minority groups, women, grows increasingly restless, self-identifying, assertive, and difficult to control.

The Democratic Party (DP), because it best represents the interests of women and members of minority groups, is very likely to receive a majority of votes in national elections. Therefore any of the historical owners who want to control the country must not only organize as the Republican opposition party, they must thwart democracy.

Democracy, i.e. majority rule, is fairly easily thwarted on the local level, but is increasingly difficult to thwart at the national level. The result is that the decision-making personnel of national government, being Democrats, tend to advance interests that are counter to those of that historical ownership minority, or at least seem to them to do so.

2) Voila, rebellion against the central government, by the Plutocrats, the Tea Party white nostalgists, and the comfortable ideological conservatives. The rebel battalions will be manned by the TPers. Each time there is an electoral battle to be fought, they will have to be marshaled against the Democrats.

The Republican Party (RP) will present itself as the champion of the rebels, as if it is the champion of limited government—which actually means limitation of a central government that would otherwise have the ability to frustrate the interests of the Plutocratic would-be owners of everything, some of whom are the owners, managers, and politicians of the RP. (In reality, whenever the RP controls the central gov it will expand it and increase the national debt, because by doing so it can serve its ownership interests, and please people who might vote R, by helping them provide for themselves, and because a large and diverse country that is a leader among nations cannot function without a large, strong, central gov—which, thus, can be applied in the financial interest of the Plutocrats, ideally to the point of fascism.)

But the RP will be further weakened to minority status, by its being divided into three ownership factions: (1) the populist fascist wing that is currently on top—the Trump Group (TG), (2) the corporatist fascist wing, owned and operated as a subsidiary of the Koch Bros and their Ilk (KBI), and (3) the Old Guard, Ideological Conservative Elite (ICE).

Everybody in the RP who isn’t a Trumpite will try to cast him out as quickly as possible.  Yuck.  The problem is that he might take his Tea Party marbles and go home.

Trump will go right on being himself, because by now there’s nothing he can believe in but himself. He doesn’t know who that is (such knowledge would break his belief), but we do. The TG junkyard dogs, Bannon, Stone, Kushner, et al., also know who that is, and how to manipulate him for their self-aggrandizement and destructive satisfaction. They will continue to work for the destruction of the RP ICE, by attracting the TPers to their side.

(But now, just to show how weird things can get in a novel like this one, in which so-called “conservatives” will tolerate anything, in order to get power: T came from outside politics to insert himself as a character, playing the role of clown, became the Antagonist as a rabble-rousing proto-fascist, and in Book II could yet be politically neutered by more revelations of his addiction to sex.)

As for KBI: really it’s time for the Koch Bros to accept liability and get out of politics, before it’s too late. It’s past time for them to break free from their father and become selves. They could do the world a world of good if they would get out of fossil fuels, stop leading the exploitation of earth, and lead the way to rebalancing the collective psyche with renewable fire, air, and water. It’s the psycho-logical thing to do. But they won’t, because then they couldn’t be leaders of the KBI. I’m guessing that they will ally themselves with ICE, to try to wrest the RP from the TG. I think they will succeed, because they are already very powerful on the state and local levels, and they have so much money. They will try to buy back the TPers, which they originally funded, but then lost control of. They just need to find A Better Demagogue (ABD).

Alas, ICE is pathetic. They have some loyal middle class conservative voters of the Old School (sort of like the Thoreauvian, “that gov is best that govs least” strain of American individualism; but they say to themselves that they believe in meritocracy, financial responsibility, and delayed gratification by everybody except themselves, + established orthodox Christian forms and mores, which they call “traditional family values,” “white” dominance throughout society, a general aversion to change, and a tendency to authoritarian personality). Their political leaders are now the prestigious but discredited House of Bush-Saud. The TG and Tpers cannot stand them, but they might suffice as a mask for KBI.

Maybe ICE can resist KBI enough to get itself together as a party of genuine conservative opposition. A minority party, but one that was productive and constructive (more about that on another page). One that could work with the Progressive Dems to complete a Janus figure, for a gov that could look for the best in both the past and the future. I doubt it.

Meanwhile, I wonder what will become of the Democrats. I’ll enjoy thinking about them on page 2 of this episode.

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