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Realpolitik: The Trump of Doom

October 8, 2016

I drafted this yesterday, just before I heard the news of the Hollywood Access tape. It’s even more accurate now.

Trump is an assured loser because his party has turned against him. They have not done so because they have become virtuous, but because they are realistic about what could happen to them if he wins.

In 1974 the owners and managers of the Republican Party got real, assessed the damage being done to their interests by Dick “Watergate” Nixon, and dumped a sitting Republican president. The party funders and leaders were the agent that could get rid of Nixon. It was their decision to make. They decided that he was simply too great a liability.

The only way Trump can win the election is to get the vote close enough, in one (or it might take two) key states, that the Party can steal the election. It has become clear [even before the tape] that he can’t do that. But more important, even if he did, his party would not steal this election for him.

Most important: major players in the party, including the Bushes but especially KBI—the Koch Bros (NLC) and their Ilk, do not want to suffer the consequences of four, or even two, years during which Trump would own the Party. It would be too damaging to their interests [it would be an unmittigated disaster—will they make the decision to set Trump aside before tomorrow’s debate?].

But does today’s Republican Party have the guts, or the intelligence, to save themselves from Trump—and Pence?

KBI is pouring $$$hundreds of millions (at the least) into Republican candidates at the state and local levels. After Trump loses (and Ailes goes down with him), they will own the Party. [What are they saying about whether to dump Trump immediately?]

Ryan and Pence, for instance, have campaigned for Trump because they believed that it was the best way to keep or have a job after the election. Neither has a moral scruple that gets in the way of political realism. They will ride out the election, and then court the Kochs, in competition with Walker, Rubio, et al.

(Meanwhile, the Bush wing, including Kasich, will have to make alliances with the Democrats, or fade. Thought turns to the coming re-alignment.)

One Comment
  1. The writing was on the wall Tuesday evening when Pence not only failed to defend Trump, he didn’t even bother trying. We called the election in that moment. And now this tape? Hoo Boy. We invite you to read our take at:

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