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And the Winner Is

October 4, 2016

This takes a lot of wind out of the plot; but in a nonfiction novel, I must narrate what’s actually happening. So I’m calling it: Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States.

I’m not saying that Trump cannot possibly win. Some combination of Dems not getting out their voters, Trump bringing out a horde of the desperate and uniformed, R suppression of the Dem vote, a terrorist attack that throws everything up for grabs (but, actually, voters might decide to vote for a former Secretary of State, rather than a shady businessman with no experience in government), and an R sneak attack on the electoral system (which they have done in the past) might get Trump the presidency.

But it is much more likely that so many voters have already made up their minds, that Trump cannot get the number he needs.

I can’t see H dropping below 48% in a four-way. I see J and S maxed out at 10 and 3, and probably will lose some of that to H. I’m even thinking she will get more than 50% of the popular vote.

Not only is it often the case at this point that there do not remain many genuine undecideds or switchers, but furthermore Americans today are so polarized, not only by party but by race, creed, color of skin, religion, ethnicity or national origin, gender, sexual orientation, and age (there must be something I’ve left out), that few people will suddenly decide that a different candidate best represents their views.

Trump and his Republicans are betting that they can profit massively by increasing that polarization, concretely in the turnout of voters. If he’s right, it will be a very disappointing revelation about America. (And he and his Republicans will then try to govern that America. It will require exceptional strength.)

Actually I’ll be surprised if T gets more than 40%. I’m thinking (wishfully?) that by 11/8 his voter turnout will be replaced by voter burnout; he is going to be so discredited that he will no longer be inspiring to any but the xtreme racists, and he will no longer be seen by the financially desperate as honest and trustworthy. He will no longer be an image of revolt and reform, no longer the voice of the forgotten—who will then be doomed to hopelessness unless H and the Dems can reach them, as they should.

As we approach 11/8, I’m seeing more and more parents and grandparents in the Rustbelt thinking about this, late into the night, alone with their thoughts. They’ve voted before, even many times; and they’re thinking, why did I vote for that guy, instead of that other guy, and how did that work out? They’re thinking, which one really might get something done that helps get jobs, which will be a Commander-in-Chief who will keep us safe, and protect our interests, instead of his?

A shockingly low Dem turnout could give Trump the majority; but Obama, Bernie, Warren, and Hillary, and their avid supporters, are not going to let that happen. Only the Russians can save T now.

Potential Dem voters might or might not like H, or trust H, but they don’t really have reason to fear an H administration [update, next day, at least not a lot of reason; I still feel some trepidation, although I might just be lingering disappointment and frustration] and it might even pave the way for a Progressive.

So keep up the good fight, even if we are winning. Think Senate, House!  And think 2018.

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