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Hillary/Trump v. Reality

May 5, 2016

Your mama is so ugly that even Ugly drops a tear.

Yeah but your mama is so ugly, she makes Ugly feel beautiful, for the very first time.

My own ugly thought is that if these two beauties, each remarkably disliked and un-likable by many, actually become the candidates, the election will come down to two issues. Not the danger of climate change, or the damage done by the influence of Xtreme Wealth (Bernie’s announced main issues), but the issue of Hillary and the issue of Trump.

It has the makings of a food fight for the ages, and the media will eat it up.

So why am I having such an ugly thought, today?

For starters, Mitch McConnell. He has announced that he will support Trump, i.e. he will support his party, no matter who or what.

I’m thinking that for the D and R Establishments, this election is about the power and wealth that comes with ownership. Bottom line: ownership of their parties, and, to varying degrees, ownership of the American and world economies, with resulting interest in keeping those economies healthy but configured in ways that the various aristocrats believe best serve their personal interests.

No doubt the parties and these candidates also have interests and motivations that are altruistic, but they are written on the bottom line.

So, having won Indiana, Trump declares general victory, and the Republican Party announces, in its crazy ways, that it is now Under New Ownership.

Having lost Indiana, and anticipating additional losses before the convention, Hillary does a Clinton thing; she launches a pre-emptive strike by declaring herself the general winner and reclaiming the appearance of inevitability. She does so by making a strategic “pivot” of her campaign to face the Republican enemy.

I’m guessing she has no choice, however, because Trump will immediately go nuclear and try to blast her out of the water. He too will pivot, to the conservatively moderate center (on issues such as trade and social security), while negotiating with the R Establishment so that they don’t fear for their positions in Management.

Watch for a return of the Koch Bros and Their Ilk to the Republican fold, where they can still own the party, at least on the state level, and can consolidate their ownership in 2018. Whoever serves their interests is the winner for them. If Charles stays with Hillary, that says something.

The 3 core constituencies of each of these candidates are solidly in place. For Trump they are the sexists, racists, and xenophobes. He will move to add Reagan Democrats, in states that will get him a majority in the electoral college. He will be aided by the voter suppression actions of the Republican party (and some Dems). As usual, the Republican strategy will be to get the vote close enough in key states that they can steal the election.

Hillary’s core constituencies are the Democratic Party Establishment and its apparatus, voters for whom the overarching goal is to elect a woman to the presidency, and Obama/Clinton AA voters. As usual, the Democratic strategy would be to, somehow, get out enough voters to win clear majorities in the key states of the electoral college, so that the Republicans cannot steal the election.

For both, the issue that they believe will most serve their strategy beyond their core constituency would be the ugliness of their opponent. (Of course both would paint their own image to look as beautiful as possible.)

Or at any rate, that’s my thought, albeit a very ugly one.

(On a brighter note, Elizabeth Warren is positioning herself for a Dem convention in which neither candidate can win on the first ballot, which seems likely. And if either B or H gets the nomination, she will be in the best position to exert influence. Smart.)

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