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Debate Prediction Entertainment 1 of 2

September 16, 2015

For my own entertainment, if no one else’s, I’m going to think out loud about who becomes the R nominee, before tonight’s debate (and before we know the effect of the Club for Growth, and Bush PAC, attempts to take down Trump in Iowa), and then update, after the debate. Actually, I’ll miss the debate itself, since I don’t have tv; and I’d sort of like to see, for myself, how Trump applies his stylistics, especially after viewing the clip of him with Wrestlemania; but on the other hand, I don’t find the man entertaining.

The Club4Growth will test the waters for whether T can be destroyed by throwing a lot of money at him. (Meanwhile, a Hillary support-PAC is doing the same for the Rs, free of charge, by attacking Bernie as The Dread Socialist.) But hey, the Bush attack ad summarizes T’s appeal to his base (including his emergence from the dark side—presumably with Dick Cheney), in what to them is an appealing set of images, and makes Jeb look like last year’s pancakes (I thought we threw those out?). It’s morning in America—or, as someone points out in the comments, Cornwall, England.

I still think this is all about who owns the R Party, as of nomination night. If the Bush Dynasty (including, I suspect, the House of Saud), or Koch Political Industries, cannot take T down, then they must reach an accommodation with him, protecting their interests, if they can. In that case, it depends on what T wants for himself.

In my thinking, in the present plot, the position of major playa for the BD depends on having a B in the White house—why else would Jeb be running? So this is very high stakes for them, and they start the race with control of the track. Can they keep enough control to get Jeb the nomination, in the face of—for them the worst-case scenario, a KBros-T alliance?

Are the Koch Bros (NLC) so old that they cannot afford to bide their time, continuing to significantly advance their interests toward more money, more power, and ultimately the realization of their dream of Fascism (American Style)?

Well, it’s hard to believe that T can withstand the onslaught of these rival powers (and I don’t wish him well—I don’t wish any of them well).

But at this moment, 3:30 p.m. on the Left Coast, I’m going with: T keeps his lead in the polls. I don’t think tonight’s debate is about anything else.

Then it will be interesting to see whether, if BD and/or KB do take T down, they can keep his supporters, and how they do that, and then whether T’s narcissistic goals will motivate him to go third-party (i’m thinking, yes, why not?).

And here’s a thing about that: people are re-reporting the Daily Intelligencer interview with Stuart Stevens, a Mississippian and long-time advisor to R presidential campaigns. When asked about the role of race, Stuart flat-out states one of the major truths of the psychopathology of American democracy: “All Southern stories, and certainly all Mississippi stories, are ultimately about race. Maybe it’s true of all American stories. It’s the single most definitive factor in one’s life.” [Thank you, Mr. Stuart.]

He also states that Obama has not made the economy a top priority, and adds: “I think there’s been a conspiracy of silence as to what is really happening economically in the country, in both parties. It goes to the success that Bernie Sanders is having and also the success Trump is having.”

I think T owns those issue-voters in the R Party.

Meanwhile, a sideshow of the debate will be whether Walker can keep KB interest in him as the candidate most representing their interests; and another is who could best represent BD interests if it turns out the Jeb simply can’t cut it. I think he’s a lot like his mother, and she’s had enough of it.

And I’m also sticking with my sense that this is not primarily about which R can win the Presidency; a D will be elected President; it’s about what R can keep or gain control of that Gruesome old Party.

It’s all great for the plot—and I hope that in the long run it’s good for our democracy.

Stay tuned. And keep breathing.

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